EUR/CHF-Commentary

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May 10, 2024

NOK flows: NOK edges higher after CPI
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May 10, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

Norway CPI mildly stronger than expected, suggesting scope for NOK gains

April 22, 2024

USD, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: JPY under pressure as risk sentiment recovers
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April 22, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

USD/JPY and EUR/JPY testing the highs. EUR/USD steady

April 19, 2024

GBP, EUR, JPY, CHF flows: GBP little changed after retail sales, scope for risk recovery
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April 19, 2024 6:33 AM UTC

UK retail sales remain quite flat, GBP little affected. Risk sell off overnight may be further reversed with tension dissipated

April 15, 2024

USD, EUR, CHF, JPY flows: USD firm, risk appetite recovering, JPY weak
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April 15, 2024 6:56 AM UTC

Market seeing Iran attack on Israel as less bad than feared, risk appetite edging up, JPY weakening 

April 12, 2024

EUR, USD, CHF, JPY flows: CHF and JPY gain ground as yields and equities fall
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April 12, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

Declining yields and equities in both Europe and US putting JPY and CHF on the front foot

April 05, 2024

USD, CHF, EUR, JPY flows: Risk negative tone overnight could extend
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April 5, 2024 7:08 AM UTC

Risk sentiment turned negative overnight on talk of an Iranian attack on Israel. Some scope for extension, with such an attack a real possibility.

April 04, 2024

CHF, AUD, JPY flows: CHF lower after CPI
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April 4, 2024 6:59 AM UTC

Another big downside miss in Swiss CPI weighs on the CHF

April 03, 2024

CHF, NOK flows: CHF weak, NOK strong as value makes a comeback
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April 3, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

CHF/NOK sees big decline as value starts to become a factor

March 26, 2024

CHF, AUD flows: CHF soft, AUD has recovery scope
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March 26, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

CHF increasingly the preferred funding currency. AUD has scope for recovery given extended short positioning

March 21, 2024

CHF flows: CHF drops sharply on SNB rate cut
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March 21, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

The SNB cut the policy rate 25bps. This was only seen as an outise chance before the meeting so the CHF has weakened and is likely to remain under pressure, although valuation only looks dramatically out of line against the JPY

March 14, 2024

SEK, CHF, JPY flows: SEK slips on CPI, CHF weak
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March 14, 2024 7:42 AM UTC

SEK lower after softer CPI, NOK/SEK still has upside scope. CHF the favourite funding currency in current risk positive market

March 04, 2024

JPY, CHF flows: CHF recovering after CPI but gains to be short-lived
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March 4, 2024 8:04 AM UTC

CHF gains on slightly smaller than expected decline in Feburary CPI, but CHF downside still favoured with CHF/JPY the best value trade.

January 11, 2024

JPY flows: JPY soft but approaching buying area
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January 11, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

US CPI will be the main focus today, but the main FX theme this week has been JPY weakness, notably on the crosses. The weakness in the Japanese labour cash earnings data yesterday helped trigger renewed JPY weakness and some further decline in JGB yields.  Earnings growth fell to 0.2% y/y, the low

January 10, 2024

JPY flows: JPY soft as earnings data weakens
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January 10, 2024 9:27 AM UTC

The weakness in the Japanese labour cash earnings data overnight helped trigger renewed JPY weakness and some further decline in JGB yields.  Earnings growth fell to 0.2% y/y, the lowest since December 2021, and given the higher rate of inflation now this implies a significantly negative path in re

January 09, 2024

EUR, CHF, JPY, AUD flows: AUD recovers, EUR and CHF vulnerable
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January 9, 2024 8:16 AM UTC

A fairly quiet overnight session with Tokyo CPI dropping in line with market expectations, though still above the 2% target, with the ex-food and energy measure stubbornly high. USD/JPY initially fell back after the data but recovered to Asian opening levels by European open. AUD was fimer on the ba

January 08, 2024

AUD, CHF, JPY flows: AUD dips, CHF firm
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January 8, 2024 7:50 AM UTC

The weakness in Chinese equities due to the bankruptcy of the Chinese wealth manager Zhongzhi announced over the weekend is likely to keep the riskier currencies on the back foot in early trade, particularly the AUD.  Zhongzhi was exposed to the Chinese property sector, and while its demise is not

December 29, 2023

EUR/CHF, USD/CHF flows: CHF back to Yesterday Highs
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December 29, 2023 10:40 AM UTC

EUR/CHF has moved back down to yesterday lows and helped to provide strength for the CHF across the board.  However, it is difficult to see the move lasting fundamentally.  Though the SNB is expected to cut rates less than the ECB next year, the SNB decision to stop FX sales at the December meetin

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF flows: JPY down and CHF up, but
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December 29, 2023 9:06 AM UTC

Europe has started off with a move lower on the JPY against the USD and EUR, while in contrast the CHF has moved higher against the EUR and across the board.  However, this is not news driven but rather flow driven and traders find it difficult to see long lasting meaning in the moves.  The mood i

December 28, 2023

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF flows: USD off the Lows
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December 28, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

The USD then bounced off the low, as global bond yields drifted higher on a sense that the November/December optimism could be getting ahead of the Fed. Additionally, some U.S. money market tightening before year end also helped lift the USD off the lows.  Finally, USDCHF stalled before 0.8320, whi

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF flows: Consolidation after Claims
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December 28, 2023 2:00 PM UTC

After the post-Christmas USD losses, it would be normal to see some consolidation, but end of year USD selling in thin conditions could still move the USD says traders.  Focus on USD/JPY and USD/CHF into the New Year, though EUR/CHF is now getting to levels that could see SNB smoothing intervention

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF flows: USD/CHF Leads the Europeans
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December 28, 2023 8:19 AM UTC

European trading has seen a soft start for the USD, as sentiment and end of year flows keep the USD on the defensive.  While the main short-term focus is the Asia surge in the JPY, the USD also remains soft against European majors.  Once again USDCHF is moving ahead of EURUSD and GBPUSD, with EURC

December 14, 2023

EUR/NOK, EUR/CHF, CHF/JPY flows: NOK up on Norges Bank hike, CHF vulnerable vs JPY
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December 14, 2023 9:14 AM UTC

Norges Bank has surprised with a 25bp rate hike to 4.5%. The market consensus was for rates to be left unchanged at 4.25%, but it was a close call, with around 40% of forecasters calling for a hike. EUR/NOK lost around 1% on the news, but was already significantly lower from yesterday, having fallen