EUR/CHF-Commentary
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January 11, 2024 7:47 AM UTC
US CPI will be the main focus today, but the main FX theme this week has been JPY weakness, notably on the crosses. The weakness in the Japanese labour cash earnings data yesterday helped trigger renewed JPY weakness and some further decline in JGB yields. Earnings growth fell to 0.2% y/y, the low
January 10, 2024 9:27 AM UTC
The weakness in the Japanese labour cash earnings data overnight helped trigger renewed JPY weakness and some further decline in JGB yields. Earnings growth fell to 0.2% y/y, the lowest since December 2021, and given the higher rate of inflation now this implies a significantly negative path in re
January 9, 2024 8:16 AM UTC
A fairly quiet overnight session with Tokyo CPI dropping in line with market expectations, though still above the 2% target, with the ex-food and energy measure stubbornly high. USD/JPY initially fell back after the data but recovered to Asian opening levels by European open. AUD was fimer on the ba
January 8, 2024 7:50 AM UTC
The weakness in Chinese equities due to the bankruptcy of the Chinese wealth manager Zhongzhi announced over the weekend is likely to keep the riskier currencies on the back foot in early trade, particularly the AUD. Zhongzhi was exposed to the Chinese property sector, and while its demise is not
December 29, 2023 10:40 AM UTC
EUR/CHF has moved back down to yesterday lows and helped to provide strength for the CHF across the board. However, it is difficult to see the move lasting fundamentally. Though the SNB is expected to cut rates less than the ECB next year, the SNB decision to stop FX sales at the December meetin
December 29, 2023 9:06 AM UTC
Europe has started off with a move lower on the JPY against the USD and EUR, while in contrast the CHF has moved higher against the EUR and across the board. However, this is not news driven but rather flow driven and traders find it difficult to see long lasting meaning in the moves. The mood i
December 28, 2023 5:01 PM UTC
The USD then bounced off the low, as global bond yields drifted higher on a sense that the November/December optimism could be getting ahead of the Fed. Additionally, some U.S. money market tightening before year end also helped lift the USD off the lows. Finally, USDCHF stalled before 0.8320, whi
December 28, 2023 2:00 PM UTC
After the post-Christmas USD losses, it would be normal to see some consolidation, but end of year USD selling in thin conditions could still move the USD says traders. Focus on USD/JPY and USD/CHF into the New Year, though EUR/CHF is now getting to levels that could see SNB smoothing intervention
December 28, 2023 8:19 AM UTC
European trading has seen a soft start for the USD, as sentiment and end of year flows keep the USD on the defensive. While the main short-term focus is the Asia surge in the JPY, the USD also remains soft against European majors. Once again USDCHF is moving ahead of EURUSD and GBPUSD, with EURC
December 14, 2023 9:14 AM UTC
Norges Bank has surprised with a 25bp rate hike to 4.5%. The market consensus was for rates to be left unchanged at 4.25%, but it was a close call, with around 40% of forecasters calling for a hike. EUR/NOK lost around 1% on the news, but was already significantly lower from yesterday, having fallen