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FOMC Still Waiting For Data to Justify Easing
May 1, 2024 7:58 PM UTC
The May 1 FOMC statement, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, while noting recent inflation disappointment, did not deliver a strong pivot in tone. The Fed is still waiting for data to allow easing to take place, but still expects inflation to slow, and looks ready to respond once data
Markets: Fed Rather Than Middle East Worries
April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway. However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers
China: Q1 Upside Surprise, but March Disappoints
April 16, 2024 8:33 AM UTC
Q1 GDP upside surprise was driven mainly by public sector investment. With the government still to implement the Yuan 1trn of special sovereign bonds for infrastructure spending, public investment will likely remain a key driving force. However, the breakdown of the March data show that retail s
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 3rd
May 2, 2024 3:12 PM UTC
USD to get support from US employment report
ISM services should be neutral, but some downside risks
JPY strength to continue long run, but some consolidation may be seen near term
NOK has upside scope despite recent weakness with Norges Bank likely to remain steady
Moody’s Improves Outlook Perspective Due to Higher Growth
May 2, 2024 2:27 PM UTC
Moody’s upgraded Brazil's outlook to positive from stable, maintaining its Ba2 rating, signaling a potential move to Ba1 soon. Strong growth prospects, attributed to institutional reforms, drove this shift. Despite lingering doubts, improved fiscal conditions and anticipated tax reform are bolster
Preview: Due May 3 - U.S. April ISM Services - A correction after two straight slowings
May 2, 2024 2:14 PM UTC
We expect April’s ISM services index to see a modest increase to 52.0 from 51.6, pausing after two straight declines, leaving the index with no clear trend, and continuing to imply modest expansion.
Preview: Due May 3 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Still strong if a little less so, earnings may be above trend
May 2, 2024 2:03 PM UTC
We expect a 255k increase in April’s non-farm payroll, still strong if the slowest since November, with a 195k increase in the private sector. We expect an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.8% and a slightly above trend 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings, lifted by a minimum wage hike in Cali
U.S. March trade balance little changed, Canada's moves into deficit
May 2, 2024 1:33 PM UTC
March’s US trade deficit of $69.4bn was marginally down from $69.5bn in February as a deterioration on the goods deficit was offset by a correction higher in the services surplus. Canada’s trade data was more surprising, a C$2.23bn deficit, and the largest deficit since June 2023.
U.S. Unit Labor Costs and Initial Claims suggest inflationary risk from labor market strength
May 2, 2024 12:56 PM UTC
Initial claims at 208k are unchanged at a very low level while continued claims at 1774k are also unchanged, the preceding data revised from 207k and 1781k respectively. The labor market remains tight while unit labor costs saw a significant bounce to 4.7% annualized in Q1.
BoE Preview (May 9): Easing Bias Clearer?
May 2, 2024 11:06 AM UTC
In flagging no need to be dominated by Fed policy, we think that the BoE is not only moving towards rate cuts but the MPC majority may be overtly advertising such a likelihood. But we do not see any move at the looming May 9 verdict, with Bank Rate again likely to remain at 5.25%. But the accompan
China Politburo: Help for Housing, But No Game changers
May 2, 2024 10:50 AM UTC
Politburo statement in late April suggests extra support for residential property. However, we see this as being incremental rather than any game changers and we still see residential investment remaining a negative drag on 2024 GDP growth.